In today’s increasingly interconnected world, the security of Western nations is facing an unprecedented range of threats, driven by a complex web of geopolitical tensions, poor foreign policy decisions, and the challenges associated with unvetted migration. Historical power struggles, coupled with conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa, have not only reshaped global alliances but also fueled the rise of terrorism and extremist ideologies. Misguided foreign interventions and the failure to support stable governance have often left power vacuums, allowing terrorist organizations to flourish. Adding to these complexities, unregulated migration flows—largely driven by war, poverty, and instability—pose significant challenges in managing security risks. As these threats continue to evolve, it is crucial for local governments, first responders, and prepared citizens to engage in serious conversations and take decisive action now.

In the next four-part series, I will try to shed light on the security issues facing us today. I will discuss in detail the three key parts to this complex problem and what we need to do as a society to help mitigate the problem as best as possible. By focusing on proactive measures, strategic planning, and collaborative community engagement, we can better equip ourselves, first responders, and the community to face the inevitable crises that lie ahead.

History of Geopolitics and Terrorism

What is Geopolitics?

Geopolitics is the effects of geography on international politics and relations. In geopolitics there are a few key global players; the United States, Russia, China and the European Union. These historical powers shaped the world we live in today. Let’s take a brief look to history, both recent and past, to find out how:

The United States has played a pivotal role in shaping the post-World War II world we live in, emerging as a global superpower. After the war, the U.S. led the reconstruction of Europe and Japan through initiatives like the Marshall Plan (Americas rebuilding of Europe), while also establishing key international institutions such as the United Nations (UN), NATO, and the World Bank. As the leader of the Western bloc during the Cold War, the U.S. championed liberal democracy and capitalism, positioning itself as a counterforce to the communist ideologies espoused by the Soviet Union. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 cemented the U.S.’s position as the world’s lone superpower, influencing global trade, economics, and security policies. In the 21st century, however, the U.S. has faced challenges from rising powers and has had to navigate increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics.

Russia, as the successor state to the Soviet Union, has had a profound influence on global geopolitics, particularly in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was one of the two dominant superpowers, locked in a nuclear arms race and ideological struggle with the U.S. The Soviet Union’s downfall in 1991 led to significant geopolitical shifts, but Russia, under Vladimir Putin, has sought to reclaim its influence through military, political, and economic means. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, its intervention in Syria, and its strategic alliances with countries like Iran have highlighted its efforts to challenge Western dominance and reassert its presence on the global stage. Russia also plays a central role in energy politics, leveraging its natural gas resources to exert influence in Europe and beyond.

China has undergone a dramatic transformation from a war-torn, isolated nation to a rising global superpower. Since the 1970s, China’s economic reforms, under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, have propelled it into the ranks of the world’s largest economies. As a result, China has become a key player in global trade (with the help of still being classed a developing nation), infrastructure, and investment, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to enhance connectivity and trade across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Politically, China has increasingly asserted its influence, particularly in Asia and the South China Sea, while promoting its model of governance—authoritarian capitalism. China’s rise has been accompanied by efforts to challenge Western institutions and norms, positioning itself as a strategic rival to the U.S. and a key counterbalance in international affairs.

The European Union (EU) has played a crucial role in shaping the political and economic order of Europe and the wider world. Established after World War II as a means of preventing future conflict, the EU initially began as an economic integration project but gradually evolved into a political entity with its own foreign policy and regulatory framework. By creating a single market and fostering political cooperation, the EU has promoted peace, prosperity, and democratic governance within Europe. Its influence extends globally through trade agreements, diplomatic initiatives, and its role as a proponent of multilateralism and human rights. However, the EU faces internal challenges such as Brexit, growing nationalism, and economic disparities among member states, all of which impact its ability to assert a unified position on a global level. Despite these challenges, the EU remains a central player in shaping global economic, environmental, and diplomatic policies.

Historical powers like the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union have significantly shaped the world, each contributing to the global political and economic landscape in different ways. The U.S. has dominated as a superpower, Russia continues to seek global influence, China’s rise challenges the traditional world order, and the EU promotes cooperation and stability in Europe. These powers are intertwined in complex relationships, balancing cooperation and competition as they navigate the increasingly unique world of the 21st century.

Rise of Terrorism in the Modern Era

If we are going to discuss terrorism, we need to be frank and honest. We need to look at this in two parts to understand it better.  This tactic has deep roots from state-sponsored terrorism in the Cold War to the rise of non-state actors like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Below I will break down, define, and explain both state-sponsored, and non-state actors:

• State-Sponsored Terrorism: Typically involves a government or state directly supporting terrorist groups to further their political or ideological aims. These actors often provide funding, training, and resources to violent groups operating within or outside their borders.
• Non-State Terrorism: Involves non-governmental organizations (NGOs) or groups that operate independently, or in a decentralized manner, to pursue goals through violence, intimidation, and terrorism. These groups may be ideological (like Al-Qaeda or ISIS) or motivated by nationalism, religion, or other causes.

State-Sponsored Terrorism during the Cold War

The roots of modern terrorism can be traced back to the Cold War, a period of ideological rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union from 1947 to 1991. During this time, both superpowers used state-sponsored terrorism as a tool of foreign policy, supporting insurgent and militant groups to weaken their adversaries. The U.S. often backed anti-communist movements, while the Soviet Union supported left-wing revolutionary groups. This form of terrorism was typically state-directed, with governments using proxy forces (third-party, for-pay groups) to carry out violent acts against rival powers or factions, both within their own countries and abroad. For example, in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union supported the communist government, while the U.S. provided funding and weapons to the Mujahideen—a loose coalition of Afghan fighters resisting Soviet occupation. The U.S. saw the Mujahideen as part of its broader strategy to combat Soviet influence in the region.

Rise of Non-State Actors: Al-Qaeda and ISIS

Following the end of the Cold War, the 1990s saw a shift in the nature of terrorism with the rise of non-state actors. Groups like Al-Qaeda emerged as prominent players on the global stage, signaling a departure from state-sponsored terrorism to more decentralized, ideologically motivated violent movements. Al-Qaeda, founded in 1988 by Osama bin Laden, capitalized on the vacuum left by the end of the Cold War and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism. Bin Laden’s vision was rooted in a radical interpretation of Islam, and he viewed the West—especially the United States—as an existential threat to Muslim societies. By the late 1990s, Al-Qaeda was focused on global jihad, attacking Western targets, culminating in the 9/11 attacks in 2001, which dramatically shifted the landscape of international security and counterterrorism efforts.

The 9/11 attacks were a defining moment in the evolution of modern terrorism. Al-Qaeda’s ability to carry out such a large-scale, coordinated attack on American soil highlighted the growing threat posed by non-state actors that operated outside of traditional state structures. These groups were less centralized, more diffuse, and often had global ambitions. Al-Qaeda used terrorism not only as a political tool but also as a means to wage ideological war against Western values and governments. The group’s ability to operate transnationally, recruit fighters from around the world, and inspire decentralized cells marked a new phase in global terrorism, one in which state borders and traditional warfare were less relevant.

In the aftermath of Al-Qaeda’s rise, a new generation of extremist groups emerged, most notably ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). ISIS capitalized on the chaos created by the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 under Bush and the subsequent breakdown of the Iraqi state. By 2014, ISIS declared a caliphate in large parts of Iraq and Syria, using terror to establish control over territories and recruit militants globally. ISIS differed from Al-Qaeda in its ambition to not just carry out acts of terror but to establish a physical, state-like presence, with territorial control and the ability to govern. While Al-Qaeda focused on attacking Western targets, ISIS prioritized territorial expansion and the establishment of a caliphate under its interpretation of Sharia law. The rise of ISIS underscored how non-state actors had evolved into powerful, transnational forces, capable of destabilizing entire regions and threatening global security.

Beyond State vs. Non-State

There are many Geopolitical factors also contributing to terrorism. Some notable ones that may sound familiar are colonial (colonizers), regional conflicts (ethic, religious, or political), and ideological clashes.

Colonial History

Many regions that are now hotspots for terrorism, especially in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, were once subjected to European colonial rule. Colonial powers often drew arbitrary borders, disregarding ethnic, religious, and cultural divisions. This created long-lasting tensions between different groups, which continue to fuel conflict and instability today.

 In the Middle East, the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 (a secret agreement between Britain and France) divided Ottoman territories into mandates, leading to the formation of modern-day countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon without consideration for ethnic or religious lines. These artificial borders sowed the seeds for internal strife and terrorism, as minority groups (such as Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites) often found themselves marginalized or oppressed.

Many of the anti-colonial movements during the 20th century used violence and insurgency tactics, which laid the foundation for later terrorist groups. The struggles for independence, such as those in Algeria (against French rule) or Vietnam (against French and then U.S. involvement), demonstrated how resistance to foreign domination could escalate into armed conflict and terrorism.

Regional Conflicts

In many regions, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia, longstanding regional conflicts have created environments where terrorism can thrive. These conflicts often involve ethnic, sectarian, or ideological divides and are exacerbated by weak or corrupt governments that fail to address the grievances of these marginalized groups.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a source of radicalization and violence, with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah using terrorism to advance their causes. Similarly, the civil war in Syria has seen the rise of extremist groups like ISIS, who exploited the chaos and power vacuum to seize territory and recruit fighters.

Regional conflicts often become battlegrounds for external powers to fight indirectly (proxy wars). The Cold War, for instance, saw the U.S. and the Soviet Union supporting different factions in countries like Afghanistan and others. These proxy wars fueled terrorism, as various factions turned to terrorism and guerilla warfare to achieve their objectives.

Ideological Clashes

Ideological clashes—especially between secularism and religious fundamentalism, or between differing religious sects—have been significant drivers of terrorism. For example, the rise of Islamic extremism, represented by groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, is rooted in a radical interpretation of Islam that opposes Western influence, secularism, and modernity.

The Iranian Revolution of 1979 led to the establishment of a theocratic regime, and its rivalry with secular, Western-backed regimes in the region contributed to the rise of various militant Islamic groups. Similarly, the rise of Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia influenced groups like Al-Qaeda, who oppose Westernization and seek to establish strict interpretations of Islamic law.

Clashes between Secular and Religious Forces in regions like the Middle East and parts of Asia and the struggle between secular nationalist movements and religious extremists has fueled terrorism. For instance, in countries like Iraq and Syria, the battle between secular governments and Islamist groups has escalated into violent insurgencies and terrorist activities.

Global Jihad: The ideological clash between Western values (democracy, freedom, and capitalism) and extremist interpretations of Islam has given rise to global jihadist movements. These groups view terrorism as a means to wage holy war against what they see as the corrupting influence of the West on Muslim societies.

The Link Between Geopolitical Failures and Terrorism

Poor foreign policy decisions, particularly military interventions and the failure to support stable governance, have been key factors in the rise of radical groups in regions like the Middle East and Africa. One of the most significant examples is the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The decision to remove Saddam Hussein’s regime, based on claims of weapons of mass destruction and links to terrorism, created a power vacuum that destabilized the entire country. The subsequent lack of a coherent post-invasion strategy left Iraq without functioning governance, allowing insurgent groups to flourish. The collapse of state institutions led to widespread sectarian violence and the rise of extremist organizations, most notably ISIS, which capitalized on Iraq’s instability to seize territory and expand its influence. This intervention not only failed to achieve its intended goals but also contributed to the creation of a breeding ground for radicalism.

Similarly, the failure to support stable governance in countries like Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal in the 1980s and Libya after the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 led to the rise of extremist groups. In Afghanistan, U.S. and allied support for the Mujahideen against the Soviet Union in the 1980s helped establish a network of fighters, many of whom later formed the core of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. However, after the Soviet withdrawal, Afghanistan was left to descend into civil war, with the central government unable to establish control, allowing the Taliban and other militant groups to thrive. Similarly, after the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya, the lack of a clear plan for political transition and rebuilding state institutions left the country fragmented, with various militias and extremist groups vying for power. These examples highlight how foreign interventions without long-term planning for stable governance often result in chaos, leading to the empowerment of radical groups and prolonged instability.