GROWING THREAT: THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICS, POOR FOREIGN POLICY, AND UNVETTED MIGRATION ON WESTERN SECURITY
By: Grant Baverstock
In part two, we will discuss how foreign policy plays a crucial role in shaping migration patterns, as decisions made by governments—such as military interventions, diplomatic relations, and economic aid—directly influence the stability of regions and the conditions that drive people to flee their homes. How inadequate and poorly planned foreign policies can exacerbate conflict, economic hardship, and political instability, leading to mass displacement and increased migration pressures on receiving countries. And, how military interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan have had significant and often unintended consequences for both local populations and Western nations.
In Iraq, the 2003 U.S.-led invasion aimed to topple Saddam Hussein, citing the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), but the aftermath led to severe instability. The dismantling of Iraq’s government and military created a power vacuum, resulting in sectarian violence, the rise of extremist groups like ISIS, and a prolonged humanitarian crisis. The intervention also strained relations between the U.S. and other global powers, while the cost of war and the loss of life weighed heavily on both Iraqis and Western nations.
In Libya, NATO’s 2011 intervention to oust Muammar Gaddafi led to the collapse of the Libyan state. While Gaddafi’s regime was brutal, its fall sparked chaos, with various militias vying for control and leading to a prolonged civil war. The power vacuum facilitated the rise of extremist groups, including ISIS, and turned Libya into a haven for arms trafficking and human smuggling, further destabilizing the region. For Western nations, the intervention highlighted the challenges of post-conflict reconstruction and the consequences of failing to ensure stable governance after regime change.
In Afghanistan, the U.S. invasion in 2001 aimed to dismantle Al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban from power. Despite initial successes, the intervention turned into a protracted conflict, with the Taliban regaining control after the horrible U.S. withdrawal in 2021. The consequences for Afghanistan have been devastating, including widespread displacement, economic collapse, and continued violence. For Western nations, the war became the longest in U.S. history, with immense financial costs and significant loss of life, leading to questions about the effectiveness and ethics of military interventions in the region.
Foreign interventions, particularly military actions, often create conditions that destabilize countries and regions, leading to large-scale migration as people flee from violence, economic collapse, and insecurity. When foreign powers intervene in a conflict—whether for regime change, counterterrorism efforts, or ideological reasons—the immediate impact often involves the destruction of local infrastructure, disruption of government institutions, and the breakdown of social order. These conditions create an environment where citizens are unable to live safely or maintain their livelihoods, prompting mass displacement both within their own countries and across borders.
These destabilized environments are often characterized by the destruction of critical infrastructure, such as healthcare, education, and economic systems, which further drives people to seek refuge. As conflict continues and governance remains weak, migration becomes not just a matter of seeking better economic opportunities but of basic survival. Foreign interventions, while often aimed at achieving geopolitical goals, often neglect the long-term consequences of destabilizing a region, leaving civilians to cope with the fallout, which in turn fuels large-scale migration to neighboring countries or even distant continents.
Economic and Political Drivers of Migration
Economic hardship, persecution, and political instability are among the most significant drivers of forced migration. In many regions, especially those affected by conflict or authoritarian regimes, people find it increasingly difficult to meet their basic needs due to widespread poverty, lack of job opportunities, and the collapse of local economies. Economic instability often accompanies conflict, as markets are disrupted, infrastructure is destroyed, and agricultural production is hampered. For individuals and families, the inability to earn a living and provide for their loved ones creates a desperate need to seek refuge in countries that offer better opportunities and a safer future.
Persecution—whether based on ethnicity, religion, political beliefs, or social identity—also forces individuals to escape their home countries. In regions where minority groups face systematic discrimination or targeted violence, fleeing becomes the only option for survival. Political instability, often amplified by corruption or failed governance, creates an environment where citizens feel they cannot live freely or safely, driving them to migrate. These conditions not only push people to leave their homes but also create an ongoing cycle of refugee movements, as people seek out the hope of a safer, more stable life elsewhere.
The European Union (EU) played a significant role in both the migration crisis and its response to the influx of refugees and migrants into Europe, particularly after 2015. The migration crisis peaked when conflicts such as the Syrian civil war, along with economic instability in countries like Afghanistan and parts of Africa, led to a massive surge in refugees seeking asylum in European countries. Over one million migrants entered the EU in 2015, many of them crossing through Greece and Italy, leading to severe strain on both national governments and the EU’s internal border systems.
The EU’s foreign policies, or lack thereof, have often exacerbated the migration crisis. The lack of a cohesive migration policy within the EU has led to disagreements among member states, with some countries, like Germany, initially welcoming large numbers of refugees, while others, particularly in Eastern Europe, opposed the relocation of migrants. This lack of coordination often left countries on the frontlines, like Greece and Italy, to bear the brunt of the crisis, resulting in overcrowded refugee camps and inadequate resources for long-term integration. Consequently, the EU’s handling of the migration crisis has often been seen as reactive and fragmented, creating long-term challenges for both the migrants seeking refuge and the European nations struggling to manage their integration.
The Interplay Between Mass Migration and Security Concerns
Failed foreign policies can significantly contribute to mass migration, which in turn poses a security threat to Western nations in several ways. As these populations flee their home countries, they seek safety in regions like Europe and North America, where asylum systems are in place, and many have historically provided refuge to displaced individuals. However, without proper planning and sustainable support systems, mass migration can strain the resources and security infrastructure of receiving countries, leading to social and political challenges.
In the case of failed foreign policies, such as the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the NATO intervention in Libya in 2011, or the prolonged conflict in Syria, these interventions have destabilized entire regions, resulting in the rise of extremist groups like ISIS and the Taliban. As a result, large numbers of refugees flee these war-torn regions, often without adequate vetting or integration programs in host countries. Unvetted migration can raise security concerns, as there is the potential for terrorist cells or extremists to enter alongside legitimate refugees, exploiting the chaos to infiltrate Western nations. This poses a risk of domestic terrorism, as individuals with radical ideologies may gain access to vulnerable communities.
Moreover, poor foreign policies that fail to address the root causes of migration—such as addressing the political instability or economic collapse in conflict zones—often result in cyclical migration patterns. The failure to stabilize regions and prevent future conflicts also increases the risk of long-term instability, further contributing to migration pressures that may outpace the capacity of Western countries to manage effectively. In this context, mass migration driven by failed foreign policies presents both immediate and long-term security challenges for Western nations, requiring comprehensive, coordinated approaches to both humanitarian aid and security measures.
The arrival of large numbers of migrants from conflict zones can put significant cultural, social, and political strains on receiving countries, particularly when migration occurs suddenly or without adequate preparation.
Culturally, the influx of migrants from diverse backgrounds can create tensions with local populations. Migrants often come from different religious, ethnic, and linguistic backgrounds. This cultural clash may result in feelings of alienation among migrants, while host communities may fear the erosion of their traditional values, social norms, and way of life. If migrants face challenges in integrating or adapting to local customs and practices, it can create divisions within society, with both migrant communities and local populations feeling marginalized or misunderstood. Over time, these tensions can escalate into social unrest, particularly when resources are stretched thin, and the competition for housing, jobs, and social services intensifies.
Socially, the strain on infrastructure and services is another significant issue. Large numbers of migrants arriving in a short period can overwhelm public services such as healthcare, education, and housing. This can result in overcrowded schools, longer wait times for medical care, and increased pressure on social welfare programs. Host countries may struggle to provide adequate support, particularly if the migrants’ needs—such as language training, mental health support, or employment opportunities—are not fully addressed. This can lead to frustration and resentment from both migrants and the local population, especially if there is a perception that migrants are receiving preferential treatment or that their arrival is causing a decline in the quality of public services.
Politically, the arrival of large numbers of migrants can polarize national discourse, leading to heated debates over immigration policies, border control, and national security. Ultimately, the arrival of large numbers of migrants from conflict zones requires careful management, with policies that promote integration, cultural understanding, and social cohesion. Failure to adequately address the cultural, social, and political strains associated with migration can lead to deepened divisions within the host country.
Call to action for Policymakers
Ensuring that migration policies are both humane and secure, with careful consideration of the long-term implications for national and global security. The challenge lies in balancing the moral obligation to offer refuge to those fleeing, while also safeguarding national and global security.
Policymakers must prioritize comprehensive immigration systems that include thorough vetting procedures, ensuring that those entering a country are not only fleeing danger but also committed to peaceful integration. These systems should address the root causes of migration by working to stabilize conflict zones through diplomatic efforts, responsible and accountable economic support (if provided), and humanitarian aid. This long-term approach would reduce the pressure on countries as migrants seek safety, and, importantly, contribute to global peace and stability.
It is critical that policymakers engage in collaborative international efforts to create cohesive strategies for migration management, ensuring shared responsibility between countries and organizations. This collective action must prioritize both the immediate needs of migrants and the broader implications for security, ensuring that the global response is not only effective but sustainable and safe. Ultimately, securing a balance between humanitarian assistance and national security will be vital to protecting both the vulnerable and the stability of nations and the global community.