Part Three: Unvetted Migration

GROWING THREAT: THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICS, POOR FOREIGN POLICY, AND UNVETTED MIGRATION ON WESTERN SECURITY

By: Grant Baverstock

In part three, we are going to address unvetted migration, what it is, how we have been exploited in recent years, risk and security implications and the challenges the future holds.  Unvetted migration refers to the movement of individuals across borders without undergoing comprehensive screening or security checks. This lack of thorough vetting processes can occur due to overwhelmed immigration systems, rushed refugee resettlement programs, or inadequate border control measures. Additionally, some governments or organizations may prioritize speed in processing migrants over ensuring the safety and security of the host country, leaving gaps in the vetting process. This can lead to a higher risk of security threats, as individuals with malicious intent or ties to extremist groups might enter along with those fleeing genuine danger.

Vulnerability to extremist infiltration is a significant concern in situations of large, irregular migration flows, where the lack of comprehensive vetting or screening processes makes it difficult to identify individuals with malicious intent, including potential terrorists. Extremist groups may exploit these chaotic migration situations, infiltrating the flow of refugees and migrants to gain access to host countries. Without thorough background checks or security screenings, it becomes challenging to distinguish between those fleeing genuine persecution and those who may seek to harm others or disrupt the security of the host nation.

In irregular migration, where many individuals may lack proper documentation, border control and immigration authorities are often overwhelmed. The sheer number of arrivals, combined with limited resources and time to properly vet every individual was apparent under the Trudeau (Canada) and the Biden (America) administrations. This creates an environment in which security risks, such as the infiltration of extremists, can go undetected. Moreover, once migrants are in the country, it may be harder for intelligence agencies to track potential threats, particularly if there is a lack of communication or cooperation between countries in sharing intelligence. This vulnerability can lead to increased concerns over national security.

The Risk of Terrorism and Radicalization

There have been several high-profile incidents where terrorists have infiltrated migration flows, exploiting the chaos of large-scale migration to enter host countries. Some notable examples are the Paris attacks in 2015 and the 2016 Berlin truck attack.

  1. 2015 Paris Attacks: In November 2015, a series of coordinated terrorist attacks were carried out by ISIS militants in Paris, resulting in the deaths of 130 people and injuring hundreds more. One of the perpetrators, Salah Abdeslam, had traveled to Europe as part of the migration wave from the Middle East, posing as a refugee. Although the attackers were primarily linked to ISIS, it was later discovered that some of them had taken advantage of the migrant routes and the lack of thorough vetting during the height of the refugee crisis. This raised serious concerns about the potential for extremists to infiltrate Europe alongside legitimate refugees.
  2. 2016 Berlin Truck Attack: In December 2016, Anis Amri, a Tunisian national, drove a truck into a Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12 people and injuring 56 others. Amri had arrived in Germany in 2015 as part of the migration wave, claiming asylum after entering through Italy. Despite being flagged as a potential extremist, he was able to evade deportation and carry out the attack. Amri’s infiltration of the migration flow highlighted the risks posed by weak vetting and the difficulty of identifying potential terrorists in a mass influx of migrants.

These incidents underscore the vulnerabilities created by irregular migration flows, where terrorists may exploit the confusion and overwhelmed systems in host countries to enter undetected. While the majority of migrants are fleeing violence and seeking a better life, these examples illustrate the security challenges that arise when large numbers of people move without sufficient checks in place. They highlight the importance of improving border control measures and ensuring that migration processes are secure, thorough, and efficient.

In some cases, the absence of meaningful cultural exchange and segregation can exacerbate the divide between migrant groups and the host society, increasing the appeal of radical views that reject mainstream values and promote violence as a means of asserting power or seeking revenge.  The internet and social media have made it easier for extremist groups to target young, vulnerable individuals within migrant communities. These platforms provide a space for radical ideologies to spread, offering easy access to propaganda and the opportunity to engage with like-minded individuals who may further reinforce extremist beliefs. Without proper intervention or community support, the process of radicalization can become more insidious, drawing individuals into dangerous networks that may eventually lead to violence. Addressing radicalization requires not only security measures but also inclusive integration policies, community engagement, and counter-narratives that offer alternatives to extremism.

Security and Policy Implications

Balancing humanitarian obligations with national security is one of the most significant challenges Western nations face in the context of migration and asylum policies. On one hand, Western countries have long committed to providing refuge to those fleeing violence, persecution, and human rights abuses, in alignment with international humanitarian laws such as the 1951 Refugee Convention. These commitments are rooted in the values of human rights and global solidarity, with the understanding that those who face life-threatening conditions should have the opportunity to find safety and protection.

On the other hand, national security concerns have become more prominent in the wake of global terrorism and the increasing volume of migration. The rise in unvetted migration and the difficulty in thoroughly screening asylum seekers can create security risks, as there is potential for extremists to exploit migration routes to enter host countries undetected. This creates a tension between the need to provide asylum to those in genuine need and the responsibility of governments to protect citizens from potential threats. Countries must prioritize a strict vetting process to ensure that individuals entering the country do not pose a risk to national security. This requires international collaboration, efficient border control systems, and a focus on long-term integration.

The political discourse around this issue has become highly divisive, with parties often framing the debate in terms of safety versus compassion. Right-leaning parties tend to advocate for more stringent measures, framing migration as a potential security threat that requires tight controls, while left-leaning parties typically prioritize human rights and focus on the need for more inclusive, welcoming policies. As migration continues to be a major global issue, this political debate is likely to intensify, influencing election outcomes, public opinion, and future policy decisions. The challenge remains in finding a balanced approach that prioritizes national security and fosters sustainable migration and ensures the well-being, integration, and assimilation of migrants into host communities.

Future Challenges

The ongoing challenge of vetting migrants is becoming more complex as global instability and terrorism continue to rise. With conflicts, political unrest, and humanitarian crises increasing in many parts of the world, the number of people seeking refuge in other countries is growing exponentially. In this context, the ability to conduct thorough and accurate vetting processes is more critical than ever. However, several challenges make this task difficult for host countries.

First, the sheer volume of migrants arriving, often under urgent and chaotic circumstances, can overwhelm immigration systems and border control agencies. In the USA under the Biden administration, America accepted 14 million migrants a 4% population increase into the country, while in Canada under the Trudeau administration 5 million migrants were admitted into the country – a 14% population increase. Per capita Canada accepted way more migrants than the crises we watched unfold in the USA. Adding to the influx many flee conflict zones or persecuted environments with limited documentation or without the means to provide comprehensive personal histories, making it harder for authorities to conduct thorough background checks when they arrive in the destination country. Countries receiving large numbers of refugees may struggle to balance speed with accuracy, potentially leading to gaps in the vetting process. Additionally, there are limited intelligence-sharing frameworks between countries, which can hinder the ability to identify individuals with criminal pasts or potential links to extremist groups or criminal networks. We witnessed this as the non-violent and violent crime stats in North America soared to the highest levels ever recorded.

The role of technology, intelligence sharing, and international cooperation is crucial in mitigating the risks posed by unvetted migration and terrorism. As global migration flows continue to increase and the threat of terrorism remains a significant concern, leveraging advanced technology and enhancing collaboration between nations have become essential tools in ensuring the safety of host countries while still upholding humanitarian obligations.

Technology plays a vital role in improving the efficiency and accuracy of vetting processes. Modern biometric screening systems, such as facial recognition, fingerprinting, and iris scans, can help identify individuals, even in cases where they lack proper documentation. These technologies enable authorities to track and verify the identities of migrants, enhancing border security and reducing the chances of criminals or extremists infiltrating migration flows. Furthermore, data analytics and artificial intelligence can be used to assess patterns and detect potential threats more effectively, by flagging individuals with suspicious travel histories or known associations with extremist organizations. These technological advancements not only streamline border control operations but also significantly reduce human error and increase the likelihood of catching security risks before they enter the country.

Intelligence sharing between countries and international agencies is equally critical in combating terrorism. Terrorist organizations often operate transnationally, and the ability to track individuals across borders is essential to preventing attacks. By sharing intelligence on suspected terrorists, migration routes, and the movements of individuals of concern, countries can form a global defense network that enhances the flow of critical information. For example, cooperation through platforms like Interpol, Europol, and the UNHCR helps coordinate efforts to prevent extremism and terrorism. Intelligence sharing allows nations to be better prepared for potential threats and to identify and track individuals who may be attempting to cross borders undetected.

Finally, international cooperation is paramount in addressing the broader issues of migration and terrorism. Countries must work together not only on security measures but also on root causes of migration. Collaborative efforts in this area can reduce the flow of people fleeing conflict and instability, thus lowering the risks of unchecked migration.

In conclusion, a combination of advanced technology, robust intelligence sharing, and international cooperation is key to mitigating the risks posed by unvetted migration and terrorism. By leveraging these tools, nations can enhance security while also creating a safer and more stable environment for both migrants and host populations.

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