The increasing threat of mass casualty events in western communities is a pressing concern. As terrorism and violent extremism continue to evolve, it is vital to address how citizens, first responders, and local community leaders can prepare for potential attacks.  In part four of this series, we will examine the growing threat of mass casualty events, drawing from examples in Canada and the U.S. and beyond, and discuss four key case studies, such as the RCMP Nova Scotia shooting, the October 7^th Israeli Music Festival attack, the Pulse Night Club shooting, and the Route 91 Harvest Concert shooting. Finally, we will outline how communities can better prepare for these inevitable events.

The Current Terrorist Threat Landscape in North America

Terrorist Threats in Canada

Current estimates of known terrorists are at 50 according to a government source (which I feel is low), in addition there are other groups such as transnational crime organizations now listed as Terrorist Entities.  Canada has experienced several incidents involving individuals linked to extremist ideologies in recent years. Notable examples include:​

1. Foiled Terrorist Plot in Toronto (2024): In 2024, Canadian authorities uncovered a plot targeting a Canadian military facility. The individuals involved were charged with terrorism-related offenses, highlighting concerns about radicalization and the effectiveness of security screening processes for immigration applicants.
2. Arrest of Muhammad Shahzeb Khan (2024): In September 2024, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, a 20-year-old Pakistani national residing in Canada on a student visa, was arrested. He was charged with attempting to provide material support to ISIS by planning a mass shooting at a Jewish community center in New York City. Khan’s arrest underscored concerns regarding Canada’s immigration policies and their potential exploitation by individuals with extremist intentions.
3. Listing of Transnational Criminal Organizations as Terrorist Entities (2025): In February 2025, the Government of Canada designated seven transnational criminal organizations as terrorist entities. These groups are implicated in various illicit activities, including the production and distribution of fentanyl. This designation aims to enhance law enforcement’s ability to dismantle and disrupt their operations within Canada. This move was largely in response to U.S. President Donald Trump and his attempt to stop the drug flow into America.

These incidents highlight the ongoing challenges Canada faces in addressing threats from individuals and groups associated with extremist ideologies. They emphasize the need for robust security measures, effective intelligence sharing, and comprehensive immigration screening processes to safeguard national security.

Terrorist Threats in the United States

Current estimates of known terrorists are at 1,000+ according to U.S. Intelligence Source. In addition, there are other groups such as transnational crime organizations now classified as Terrorist Organizations in the U.S.A.  In recent years, the United States has experienced several incidents involving individuals linked to extremist ideologies. Notable examples include:​

1. New Orleans Truck Attack (January 2025): On January 2, 2025, Shamsud-Din Jabbar carried out a vehicle-ramming attack on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, resulting in multiple injuries. The FBI determined that Jabbar was “100% inspired by ISIS” and acted alone. Investigators uncovered improvised explosive devices (IEDs) near the scene, which were rudimentary and lacked proper detonation mechanisms. Authorities also found bomb-making materials during a search of Jabbar’s residence in Houston, Texas
2. Foiled Election Day Terror Plot (October 2024): In October 2024, an Afghan national residing in the United States was arrested for allegedly plotting a terrorist attack on Election Day. Motivated by ISIS, the individual planned to carry out a violent act targeting civilians. The FBI’s intervention prevented the attack before any harm occurred. ​
3. Florida Synagogue Threat (December 2024): A 23-year-old man from Florida was arrested for making online threats to attack synagogues in New York City. The individual had a history of supporting extremist groups and advocating violence against Jews. He was apprehended before carrying out any attacks.

These incidents highlight the evolving nature of domestic terrorism threats in the U.S., emphasizing the need for continuous vigilance and robust counterterrorism measures.

Case Studies

Case Study 1 – The RCMP Nova Scotia Shooting (2020)

Incident Overview: The mass casualty event that took place in Nova Scotia on April 18-19, 2020, was one of Canada’s deadliest shooting sprees in modern history. The gunman, Gabriel Wortman, went on a violent rampage across multiple rural communities, killing 22 people in a series of attacks. The timeline of the events spanned over 13 hours, from late Saturday night until the following Sunday morning. Wortman, who was dressed as a police officer, used multiple firearms, including a semi-automatic rifle, as he drove across the province in a mock RCMP cruiser. His impersonation of a police officer led many unsuspecting victims to trust him, only to be tragically murdered. The attack resulted in the deaths of both men and women, ranging from young adults to seniors, and left many others severely wounded. The scale of the attack was immense, causing widespread fear and highlighting vulnerabilities in public safety systems.

Lessons Learned: The attack by Wortman underscored several critical lessons about law enforcement coordination and response time. The delayed response and difficulty in tracking Wortman’s whereabouts revealed significant gaps in intelligence sharing and communication among different police forces. Despite early efforts to alert the public, the absence of real-time updates left citizens and authorities scrambling to track his movements. This situation amplified the dangers of misinformation, as rumors circulated about Wortman’s identity and location, causing confusion. The attack also highlighted the need for community-based security initiatives, as local residents may be better positioned to spot potential threats and provide early warnings. Strengthening community engagement and fostering cooperation between law enforcement agencies and the public could prevent future tragedies from escalating.

Case Study 2 – The Pulse Nightclub Shooting (2016)

Incident Overview: The Pulse Nightclub shooting, which occurred on June 12, 2016, in Orlando, Florida, was a devastating act of terrorism that left 49 people dead and 53 others wounded. The gunman, Omar Mateen, opened fire at the popular LGBTQ+ nightclub.  Mateen, who had pledged allegiance to ISIS during the attack, used an assault rifle and a pistol, committing what was, at the time, the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history. The complexity of the attack was heightened by the fact that Mateen barricaded himself inside the nightclub with hostages, leading to a tense standoff that lasted for hours. Law enforcement eventually stormed the building, but the lengthy response time and lack of early intelligence on Mateen’s intentions contributed to the high death toll.

Lessons Learned: The Pulse Nightclub shooting highlighted several important lessons for law enforcement and emergency response teams. First, the attack underscored the critical importance of intelligence gathering and threat assessment to prevent targeted attacks. Mateen had previously come under scrutiny by the FBI for possible terrorist ties, yet he was able to carry out his plan without detection, even being allowed to legally purchase firearms despite being flagged. A more comprehensive assessment of his history and intentions may have prevented the attack from escalating. Second, Mateen’s original plan was to attack Disneyland where he had scouted previously, but during the day of his attack he noticed increased security and decided to re-plan a new attack somewhere else. This underscores the value in proper security and security checks as a deterrent. Third, the attack emphasized the need for thorough preparedness training for first responders. The officers and paramedics who arrived at the scene were faced with an overwhelming and chaotic situation, requiring quick decisions under extreme pressure. Effective training and coordination between law enforcement, medical teams, and other emergency responders are crucial for minimizing casualties during such catastrophic events. The Pulse shooting remains a stark reminder of the importance of proactive threat assessment, inter-agency cooperation, and preparedness in handling large-scale, targeted acts of violence.

Case Study 3 – Route 91 Harvest Festival Shooting (2017)

Incident Overview: The Las Vegas shooting, which occurred on October 1, 2017, remains one of the deadliest mass shootings in U.S. history. Stephen Paddock, from his suite on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Hotel, fired into the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest Festival, a country music concert. Using high-powered rifles, including those modified with bump stocks, Paddock unleashed a relentless barrage of gunfire over a span of about 10 minutes, killing 58 people and injuring more than 800. The scale of the attack was amplified by the open-air setting of the concert and the dense crowd, making it difficult for people to escape or find cover. Paddock’s ability to fire at such a large crowd from an elevated position made it nearly impossible for law enforcement to pinpoint his location taking more then 1 hour to find and enter his room, further complicating the response.

Lessons Learned: This tragic event underscores the critical need for effective intelligence gathering and threat assessment. The tragedy also highlighted the importance of preparedness training for first responders and public venues in managing catastrophic events. Law enforcement and medical teams must be well-coordinated, as rapid intervention can significantly minimize casualties. First responders must be prepared to manage large, complex scenes, while public venues need to implement security measures, such as advanced surveillance and emergency response plans. The seamless collaboration between law enforcement, medical personnel, and emergency services is paramount in minimizing the human toll of such attacks, ensuring that victims receive prompt care and that the situation is contained swiftly. It is estimated in this event that the death toll would have been 70% higher (up to 560 people) if it wasn’t for active military, veterans, off duty emergency service personnel and trained civilians attending the concert that were able to render immediate aid to the injured.

Case Study 4 – October 7^th Music Festival Attack (2023)

Incident Overview: On October 7, 2023, a deadly attack unfolded at a music festival in Israel, where hundreds of attendees gathered for a celebration near the Gaza border. The attack, which was carried out by Hamas militants, marked a dramatic and horrific escalation of violence in the region. Armed with high-powered firearms, including assault rifles, the militants infiltrated the crowd, some dressed in police and paramedic uniforms opened fire at emergency service personnel and then indiscriminately at concertgoers. This brutal assault resulted in the deaths of at least 260 people, with many others wounded, as the attackers moved through the venue, shooting at fleeing festival-goers. The chaos was amplified by the fact that it took place in an open, crowded public space, with people unprepared for the sudden onslaught of violence. The combination of rapid gunfire, the unexpected nature of the attack, and the dense crowd created immense confusion and difficulty for the victims to escape.

The complexity of the attack stemmed not only from the use of firearms but also from the coordinated tactics employed by the attackers, who launched the assault as part of a larger, multi-pronged operation. The militants also employed rocket fire and infiltration strategies that targeted both military and civilian infrastructure. The attack’s scale was staggering, as the concert, a popular event with hundreds of people, was quickly transformed into a chaotic scene of violence and terror, leaving responding emergency crews confused as they arrived on scene.

Lessons Learned: The attack emphasizes the importance of proactive intelligence gathering and threat assessment. The Hamas-led assault involved multiple forms of violence, including rocket attacks and infiltrations, indicating potential warning signs that could have been detected with better intelligence-sharing and early warnings. The lack of preparedness highlights the need for continuous monitoring, even in seemingly peaceful environments like a music festival.

This event also underscores the necessity of preparedness training for both first responders and event organizers. Rapid deployment of law enforcement and medical teams is crucial to minimizing casualties. Additionally, venues must implement stronger security measures, such as surveillance, crowd control, and quick-response units, to reduce response time and potentially prevent attackers from entering the venue.

Finally, the tragedy highlights the need for coordinated efforts between military, law enforcement, and civilian authorities. Effective communication and cooperation among all sectors are critical during a mass casualty event to improve the chances of saving lives and swiftly ending the attack.

Preparedness: What We Need to Do as Citizens

A key take-a-way from the case studies is the fact the terror threat has shifted dramatically over the last 10 years from large-scale, high-profile attacks to more localized, community-based threats that target areas where people live, work, and play. While major attacks like 9/11 once dominated global security concerns, the modern landscape of terrorism now often sees perpetrators carry out strikes in everyday public spaces—shopping malls, restaurants, schools, and public transportation hubs. These attacks, which often involve smaller, less sophisticated methods like stabbings, vehicle ramming, lone-wolf, and multiple shooters, are harder to predict and prevent due to their random nature. By infiltrating ordinary environments, terrorists aim to instill fear and disrupt daily life in neighbourhoods, making their targets not just symbolic sites but the very heart of civilian life. Individuals in public spaces must be encouraged to remain alert to their surroundings, recognizing any unusual or suspicious behavior that could indicate a potential threat.  If the attacks are going to be localized in communities, that is where the conversation needs to start.

Personal Safety and Training

In addition to community awareness, personal safety is paramount. Advocacy for first-aid training and active shooter response courses for citizens should be a priority. Equipping individuals with the knowledge of basic medical aid, such as CPR and traumatic wound care, as well as how to react in an active shooter scenario, can save lives. In the face of a crisis, knowing escape routes, creating emergency plans, and carrying essential items such as a personal medical kit can significantly improve one’s chances of staying safe. Empowering citizens with the skills to respond effectively to emergencies can reduce panic and increase the likelihood of survival during such high-stress situations.

At an individual or family level, it’s crucial to adopt a mindset of inquiry—examining past case studies and incidents, and analyzing the threat itself alongside similar scenarios. By understanding both the nature of the threat and the circumstances in which it has occurred, you can gather valuable insights to apply to your daily life. Consider questions related to your regular routines: Where do your children attend school or daycare? Where do you go to worship, shop, or enjoy entertainment? Identify your go-to venues such as malls, movie theaters, or sports arenas. Once you’ve established these key locations, your next step is to ask whether these places have an emergency evacuation plan, a clear policy for handling crises, and staff training to respond effectively. Assess the level of security present and inquire about the preparedness of employees. This proactive approach helps you create a foundation for understanding how a crisis might unfold and how you can better safeguard yourself and your loved ones.

Engagement with Local Law Enforcement

Building strong relationships between the community and local law enforcement is critical for ensuring the safety of residents. Regular communication with law enforcement can provide citizens with a better understanding of what to look for in terms of suspicious activity, as well as the importance of following protocols during an emergency. By working together, law enforcement and the community can create a stronger, more resilient environment capable of quickly responding to threats and minimizing the damage caused by attacks.

Preparedness for First Responders

Regular, comprehensive training and simulation exercises are vital for preparing first responders and communities to handle mass casualty events. Traditional drills focused solely on single-shooter scenarios are no longer enough. Scenarios involving multiple shooters, explosive blasts, and other terror-related incidents should be included to ensure swift, effective responses. Cross-agency collaboration between law enforcement, fire, and medical teams is essential for coordinated action. Additionally, group training with experts like GWOT veterans and October 7th first responders can provide valuable insights into how crises unfold, improving internal training and decision-making under pressure.

Advanced technologies such as drones, body cameras, and enhanced communication systems are crucial for improving situational awareness during a crisis. Drones provide real-time aerial views, while body cameras offer valuable footage, helping responders assess situations from a safe distance. Effective communication between agencies ensures rapid, coordinated responses, preventing delays and confusion.

Alongside physical preparedness, investing in mental health support for responders is essential. Access to counseling, peer support programs, and debriefing sessions helps mitigate the psychological impact of mass casualty events. Mental resilience is crucial for first responders, enabling them to perform effectively under the stress of such incidents, ultimately strengthening the overall emergency response.

Preparing for the Inevitable: What Local Governments Should Do

To reduce the risks of mass casualty events, stronger public safety policies and infrastructure improvements are essential. This includes tighter security measures at venues and transportation hubs, such as enhanced screening, increased law enforcement presence, and advanced technologies like metal detectors and bag scanners. Public safety investments, such as surveillance systems and Mass Casualty Kits for trauma care, should be standard in high-traffic areas, similar to the common placement of AEDs. These measures help deter attacks and improve response effectiveness in emergencies, creating safer public spaces.

Community-based security initiatives also play a critical role. By fostering local engagement with law enforcement and promoting awareness of surroundings, communities can become active participants in security efforts. Emphasizing counter-extremism programs and early intervention strategies for individuals at risk of radicalization can prevent violence before it escalates. Strong collaboration between communities and law enforcement can build a proactive security model that addresses threats early and strengthens resilience in the face of growing challenges.

In Closing

The threat of mass casualty events is a real and growing concern across North America. The estimated numbers outlined earlier should not be taken at face value – they should be considered 10-times those numbers if we are to take these threats seriously. In recent years, the frequency of such attacks has increased, highlighting the need for better preparedness at all levels of society. Whether in public venues, schools, or community spaces, the potential for large-scale tragedies is ever-present. These events not only result in devastating loss of life but also leave lasting emotional and psychological scars on survivors, first responders, and entire communities. As the nature of threats evolves, it is critical that we acknowledge the gravity of the situation and prepare accordingly to safeguard our communities.

In the face of this growing threat, a unified, community-driven private-public approach to preparedness is essential. Citizens, first responders, and local governments must work together to create an environment of collaboration, resilience, and vigilance. This includes staying informed about potential threats, investing in training for individuals and emergency services, and ensuring that resources are allocated to enhance community safety. Communities must recognize their role in preventing and responding to these incidents, threat identification, and emergency response planning. By fostering a culture of preparedness, we can improve our collective ability to handle such crises and minimize their impact on public safety.

While it is impossible to completely eliminate the risk of mass casualty events, we can significantly reduce their impact by taking proactive steps to prepare. Together, making these investments in preparedness we not only strengthen our defense against future threats but also build a more resilient community where individuals can better protect one another.  The time to have these conversations is now, before an event occurs, not after.  The priority should be to build trust when the stakes are low, so you can leverage it when they are high.